摘要
将系统动力学方法运用于港口吞吐量预测,可以较好地解决传统预测方法中考虑因素较少的问题,在对港口系统主要因素及因果关系分析的基础上,建立港口吞吐需求量及供给量系统动力学模型,并采用南京港各相关统计数据对模型进行了仿真和验证,结果证明该模型有效可行.
System dynamics method can give favorable solution to the questions in prediction of port throughput by traditional ways. A model is established to predict the port throughput supplies and demands on the basis of analysis of the main influence factors and causalities of port system. The proposed model is verified by simulation using the relevant statistical data of port volume of Nanjing. Its feasibility and efficiency are proved.
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》
2006年第6期950-953,共4页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）
基金
江苏省重点学科建设项目资助(批准号:BR030811)
关键词
港口吞吐量
系统动力学
模型预测
port throughput
system dynamics
model predication
