摘要
为对舰艇各系统生命力进行损伤评估,在假定的作战环境中对舰艇系统承受打击的能力进行量化。过去,生命力损伤评估分析主要以一次打击为重点,而多次打击评估尚处于摸索和试验阶段。因此,为了评估舰艇各系统在遭受多次命中时的生命力,通过分析舰艇被多次命中的特点,建立了合理的命中概率的数学模型,总结出了一步转移概率矩阵的数值计算方法,将随机过程中的马尔科夫链应用于多次命中的生命力评估问题,取得了较好的效果。通过举例比较了不同的系统分布在多次命中下的生命力状况,并通过计算机模拟试验验证了该计算方法的可行性和正确性。最后,引入了损伤评估的指标,通过加权的处理,较好地反映系统的生命力状况。
The anti-attack capability of warship systems is quantified to estimate the survivability of each system when withstanding the damage by the attack in a given operational environment. Such work is normally done in consideration of the one time attack and the estimation of multiple attacks is still at experimental stage. However, research on the survivability of warship systems under multiple attacks is our goal to find out the survivability of damaged systems. By analyzing the characteristics of multiple attacks, a mathematic model of rational hit probability established, and a numerical calculation method is worked out for the single step transition matrix. Moreover, by applying the theory of Markov process to the survivability estimation of multiple attacks, satisfactory results are obtained. The survivabilities of different configuration of the systems under the multiple attacks are compared by case studies, the feasibility and validity of this method is then verified through a computer simulation. It is found that the damaged status can be successfully reflected by using survivability index and weighing factor.
出处
《中国舰船研究》
2006年第4期36-40,共5页
Chinese Journal of Ship Research
关键词
舰艇生命力
多次命中
马尔科夫链
损伤评估
ship survivability
multiple attack
Markov process
damage assessment
