摘要
利用改革开放以来我国经济增长和产业发展的时间序列数据．对我国经济增长模式的类型以及产业不平衡发展对总体经济增长的影响等问题进行实证检验和分析表明．我国产业的不平衡发展除了对当年总体经济增长产生影响外，其影响还存在着四年左右的持续期。不平衡发展对当年和下一年的经济增长存在一定的负面效应，而在随后的三年中却体现出明显的正面效应，从总体上提高了年平均经济增长率。
By utilizing the time-series data of economic growth and industrial development since the reform and opening-up, this paper has made an empirical test of China＇s economic growth pattern as well as the influence of the industrial imbalanced development on overall economy growth. The result shows that the imbalanced growth of industrial development affected the overall economy growth not only of the same year but also of the following four years. Imbalanced growth has had negative effect on overall economy growth in this year and the next year. However, it brings about obvious positive effect in the following three years. The integrative effect is that the growth rate of annual economy increases.
出处
《改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第2期32-36,共5页
Reform
关键词
平衡增长
不平衡度
经济增长
滞后变量
balanced growth, the index of imbalance, economic growth, the lag variables
