摘要
耕地安全是食物安全的基础，我国未来的耕地压力大，耕地保护是关键。耕地警戒值是影响政府土地管理部门加强耕地保护执法力度和老百姓建立耕地安全意识、参与性保护耕地的重要指标。近年来，人均耕地警戒值0．053hm^2的引用时耕地安全意识的建立产生了很大影响，科学测算我国耕地警戒值具有紧迫性和现实意义。构建最小人均耕地面积的扩展模型Smis-M/Bn∑i=1βi·Gi/Pi建立饲料粮食消费量与肉蛋奶消费量、食品作物单产量与单产影响因素之间关系的5个线性回归方程，以及单产影响因素与时间关系等6个曲线估计方程，测量粮食、植物油、糖和蔬菜等食品作物单产量，计算2006年．2015年最小人均耕地面积并与相应年份实际人均耕地面积时比，确定2006年的最小人均耕地面积0．09035hm^2和最小人均耕地面积总量1．18×10^8hm^2（17．7亿亩）分别为人均耕地警戒值和耕地总量警戒线。
Abstract：The cultivated land conservation is critical in China at present and in the future because the cultivated land security is the base of food security. The security threshold value of the per capita critical arable area is used by government as an important index for land conservation. Currently, it was reported that the threshold value of security of the per capita critical arable area was 0. 053 hectares in China, which was questioned by dozens of scholars. Therefore, it is important and necessary to scientifically calculate the threshold value of security of the per capita critical arable area. In this paper, the food consumption structure is taken into consideration and a mathematical model was built to calculate the minimal demand for per capita cultivated land area based on other＇s research results. The modified equation is ： Smis-M/Bn∑i=1βi·Gi/Pi The regression analysis models were built by SPSS. And the mathematical analysis models included 5 equations of linear regression and 6 equations of curve regression. The yield per hectare of food including grain, plant oil, sugar and vegetable and so on was respectively calculated by the linear regression analysis between the food demand of fodder grain, meat, eggs and milk and yield per hectare and their relative factors, and by the curve regression analysis between the factors related to the yield per hectare of crops and the time. The prediction of the minimum area per capita of cultivated land and the per capita actual arable area in China from 2006 to 2015 was analyzed comparatively. It is concluded that the threshold value of security of the per capita critical arable area is 0.09035 hectares and the threshold value of security of the total critical arable area is 1.18 billion hectares. This result shows that the cultivated land pressure in China is obvious at present and the cultivated land conservation is to play a critical role. We have to place a strict control on the use of land and exercise a special protection on cultivated land in the future.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第3期158-164,共7页
Resources Science
基金
国家社会科学基金项目:"从源头防治污染和保护生态环境的对策研究--基于微观主体行为分析的视角"(编号:06XJY005)
关键词
食物消费结构
最小人均耕地面积
扩展模型
实际人均耕地面积
耕地警戒值
Food consumption structure
The minimum area per capita of cultivated land
Mathematical model
The per capita actual arable area
The security line of the per capita arable area
