摘要
利用2004年黑龙江省卫生人力资源数据库对当前该省卫生人力资源供给状况、年龄构成、学历构成和专业构成进行了现状分析;利用年龄移算方法对2010年和2015年该省卫生人力状况进行了预测分析,并通过趋势外推法预测了该省2010年人口总数和2015年人口总数。预测结果显示,2005年和2010年,该省卫生人力资源数量均达到国家要求,但卫生人力资源的质量还需要不断加强和提高,同时,必须进行结构调整,尤其是需要向护理专业调整;而预测的2015年该省卫生人力资源数量和专业结构的发展都不够理想,应尽快进行补充和结构调整。
The article analyzes the situation of health manpower resources delivery in Heilongjiang province, which make use of the database for the health manpower resources in this province of 2004.In addition, the authors forecast the volume of population by using extrapolate, analyze the structure of the health manpower resources by using population Estimates by age in this province of 2010 and 2015. The result shows that the volume of the health manpower resources delivery will come up to the standard drafted by government, but the special skills of the health manpower will have to be improved further in this province of 2005 and 2010. The data also displays the volume of the health manpower resources will be in shortage, and the speeiahy structure will he irrational in Heilongjiang in 2015. Thus, some reform for the health manpower resources must he adopted.
出处
《中国卫生经济》
2007年第8期53-55,共3页
Chinese Health Economics
基金
黑龙江省卫生厅课题(编号:2005-184)
关键词
卫生人力
年龄移算
预测
health manpower, population estimates by age, forecast
