摘要
分析重庆地区40a来气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响，用WOFOST作物模型与BCC-T63气候模式相结合，定量化地估算未来50a（2001—2050年）重庆地区冬小麦产量变化趋势。结果表明：在目前的品种和生产条件下，未来气候变化后重庆地区冬小麦的产量变化波动不是很大，减产幅度在2．0％～5．0％，平均减产3．0％。
Impacts of the climate change on the yields of winter wheat for the last 40 years in Chongqing area were analyzed. The trend of changes on winter wheat yields for the future 50 years （2001 -2050） was quantitatively estimated by using WOFOST crop model and BCC -T63 climate model. The results showed that under the climate change scenario, winter wheat yields would not largely fluctuate. The change range of yields would be between 2.0% and 5.0% , but the yield would be averagely reduced by 3.0%.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
2007年第3期268-270,共3页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
重庆市科技合作项目"重庆市冷暖旱涝灾害变化及其影响研究(2004-8770)"
关键词
气候变化
冬小麦
作物模型
产量
Climate change
Winter wheat
Crop model
Yield
