摘要
证据理论在解决多源信息融合问题、尤其是不确定性问题上有独到之处.但证据理论组合规则中对动态证据的权威性问题未进行详细地量化,使得动态证据组合过程中产生偏差甚至导致预测结果与人类思维相反.针对上述不足,提出基于时间换算的动态证据组合规则,即将时间换算函数与证据组合规则有机结合起来,可有效地解决动态证据组合过程中产生的偏差,在组合时考虑证据权威的时变性.为验证其有效性,将其用于丰满电厂主变压器故障预测,试验结果支持了该方法.
Evidence theory shows special function especially solving uncertainty problem. However, in solving fusion problem of multi-source information and the authoritativeness of dynamic evidence is not analyzed in evidence theory combination rules, which will generate the deviation in the process of dynamic evidence combination, and even induce the prediction opposite to thought of humanity. For the above-mentioned deficiency, the dynamic evidence combination rules based on time conversion has been proposed. Through considering time-varying nature of evidence authoritativeness and combining time conversion function with evidence combination rules, the deviation generated in the process of dynamic evidence combination can be effectively avoided. To testify its effectiveness, the scheme was applied to the trouble detecting of main transformer in Fengman Electricity Generating Station. The test results show that the proposed method is feasible and efficacious.
出处
《沈阳工业大学学报》
EI
CAS
2007年第4期435-437,共3页
Journal of Shenyang University of Technology
基金
沈阳工业大学博士启动基金资助项目(521101302)
