摘要
针对外贸对中国经济增长的贡献是否显著这一问题和相关悖论,本文澄清了造成这一悖论的根本原因是传统测算方法在考虑消费、投资和出口对GDP的贡献时混淆了进口在GDP总量核算和贡献率分解核算中的不同作用,违背了贡献率核算中的进口项目在消费、投资和出口中的匹配分解原则,从而大大低估了出口对中国经济增长的真实贡献,由此所得到的结论及相关的政策分析和建议也就值得商榷。本文的结论与众多的研究结论相反,认为出口是拉动我国经济增长的主要推动力量,对我国经济增长具有至关重要的作用。
Aiming at the paradox between the traditional measurement result and the positive result of the export contribution to the economic growth and the confusion of economic analysis brought by the paradox, this paper clarifies that the fundamental reason of the paradox is that the traditional measurement confuses the different functions of import of the general GDP accounting and the contribution decomposition accounting, and violates the matching decomposition principle of the import item in consumption, investment and export, when taking account of the contribution of consumption investment and export to economic growth. So this has greatly underestimated the actual export contribution to the growth. And, in due, the conclusion, the related policy analysis and the suggestion are still doutful. Contrary to many researches＇ conclusions, the measurement result of this paper approves that the export is the main power of the economic growth and plays a significant role on it.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第10期81-90,共10页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目资助
项目批准号70671052
关键词
外贸
经济增长
需求解析
International Trade
Economic Growth
Demand Analysis
