摘要
中长期降水量的预测是气象科学的一个难点问题,也是水文学中的一个重要问题。建立对数马尔可夫模型预测降水量,弥补了传统的马尔可夫模型降水预测中峰值的不准确性,提高了预测精度,并用宁夏盐池县气象站43 a的降水资料进行了验证。结果表明,模型预测精度较高,为半干旱风沙区中长期降水量预报提供了一条简便可行的途径。
The medium-and-long-term prediction of precipitation is not only difficult in meteorology, but also an important issue in hydrology. The logarithmic Markov chain model is established to predict precipitation, which can compensate the uncertainty of peak point in precipitation prediction by the traditional Markov model and raise the prediction accuracy. At last, precipitation data of 43 years from the hydrological station in Yanchi County are used to verify the model, and prediction accuracy is found to be satisfied. So, the logarithmic Markov chain can provide an oversimplified channel to the medium-and-long-term precipitation prediction in the semi-arid sandy region.
出处
《水土保持通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第5期96-100,共5页
Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家科技攻关项目"宁夏河东沙地退化草场植被恢复与利用技术研究与示范"(2005BA517A10)
关键词
降水
对数函数
马尔可夫链
盐池县沙地
precipitation
logarithm function
Markov chain
sandy land of Yanchi County
