摘要
应用灰色系统理论，对太平洋海域４８个长期验潮站的月均海平面分别建立了ＧＭ（１，１）模型。ＧＭ（１，１）模型能较好地反映太平洋海域的海平面变化的趋势，它除了能给出连续的海平面变化速率外，同时能方便地给出海平面变化的加速率。模拟结果表明，在太平洋地壳均衡假设下，太平洋海域的月均海平面以平均速率０．１７ｃｍ／ａ上升。在太平洋海域所取的４８个长期验潮站中，有４０个站在加速上升，全部站的平均加速度为０．０００２９ｃｍ／ａ２。且加速率逐渐增大。当然这些加速率都很小，但作为一种普遍性的趋势。
With the method of grey system, the GM(1,1) models are built up for the monthly mean sea level variations at 48 gauge stations in the Pacific Ocean respectively. The GM(1,1) model well reflects the trend of sea level variation in the Pacific Ocean. In addition to giving out the continuous sea level changing rate, it can also give out the acceleration conveniently. The simulation result points out that, in the ballance of rising and falling of the earth crust in the Pacific Ocean, the averaged rising rate of monthly mean sea level is 0.17cm/a. The monthly mean sea level of 40 stations of all the 48 stations used in this paper is rising accelerately (the averaged acceleration of all the 48 stations being 0.00029cm/a 2) and the acceleration is increasing.
基金
国家自然科学基金
关键词
太平洋
海域
海平面变化
灰色系统
Pacific Ocean
sea level variation
grey system theory
model variation
variation rate
acceleration
