摘要
氨气泄漏事故的应急决策是一个复杂过程,该过程受到技术、经济、环境以及风险等许多因素的影响,不同专家决策者对应急方案有明显的偏好,且各专家对各属性的权重取值不完全确定.为了处理这样的不完全信息和偏好决策问题,本文提出了一种表示专家意见的多专家决策方法,该方法要求多专家分别对不同属性给出相应的效用函数和属性权重区间数,并应用蒙特卡罗模拟方法将这些偏好进行定量分析及合成.最后,以某工厂氨气泄漏应急决策为实例,详细讨论了该方法的应用.
The emergency decision of ammonia leak is quite complicated. The selection of its decision strategies is depended on many factors such as technology, economics, environment, and risk. Decision makers have their own preferences on alternatives separately, and the information concerning their responses to the questions they are asked is incomplete. To deal with group decision-making problems where several decision makers elicit their own preferences separately with incomplete information, a new emergency-decision method indicating decision maker preferences will be proposed. Consequently, each decision maker proposes classes of utility functions and attributes weight intervals for the different attributes. And then the decision makers＇ preferences are quantified and aggregated with Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Finally, an application to the method for the emergency decision of ammonia leak gains a good result and illustrates the usefulness and flexibility of this iterative process.
出处
《南开大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第6期28-33,共6页
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Nankaiensis
基金
国家"十一五"科技支撑计划(200603746006)
关键词
氨气泄漏
应急决策
不完全信息
多专家决策
ammonia leak
emergency decision
incomplete information
group decision making
