摘要
通过对未来降雨、出流、损失方面的预测及基于预测模型运行过程中不确定性因素的分析,阐述了洪水预报中的不确定性,把贝叶斯的推断过程的真正范畴与"非等效性"概念联系到一起可得到更高的后验密度。
In this paper, the uncertainty in flood forecast is discussed through analysis of uncertainty factors in the process of forecasting by the model and of the forecast results in rainfall, runoff and the loss. A higher posterior density can be get combining with the real scope by Bayesian and the 'non-equivalent'.
出处
《东北水利水电》
2008年第4期30-32,共3页
Water Resources & Hydropower of Northeast China
关键词
洪水预报
不确定性
后验密度
flood forecast
uncertainty
posterior density
