摘要
本文运用漫坝风险分析理论,在综合考虑洪水、风浪、库容、泄水能力等方面不确定性的基础上,建立土坝对抗洪水与风浪共同作用的漫坝风险模型,提出用"积分-一次二阶矩法"计算漫坝风险,并详细探讨水库土坝漫坝风险标准问题。将该方法运用于广西澄碧河水库,计算结果表明:在保证水库漫坝风险在标准值5.0×10-6范围内,可将水库的汛限水位提高0.40m,使水库多蓄水1600万m3,水库多年平均年发电和供水等综合效益将增加100万元左右。
In this paper, the theory of risk analysis is applied to establish the overtopping risk model under the joint actions of flood and wind wave. In the model, the uncertainties of flood, wind wave, storage capacity of reservoir anddischarge capacity of spillway are comprehensively considered, and the Integrate-FOSM method is used to calculate the overtopping risk. Earth dam overtopping risk standard of reservoir is studied particularly. Analyzed and calculated results of Chengbihe reservoir of Guangxi province indicate that the flood control water level can be raised by 0.40m under the condition that overtopping risk of the reservoir is controlled under the standard value of 5.0× 10^-6, As a result, the increase of water stoage of reservoir will reach 16 million m3, and the average annual multipurpose benefits of the reservoir will be increased by about one million yuan（RMB）.
出处
《水力发电学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第2期44-49,共6页
Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering
基金
广西水电科技计划资助项目(20002)
关键词
水文学
积分-一次二阶矩法
广西澄碧河水库
漫坝风险分析
风险标准
hydrology
Integrate-FOSM method
Chengbihe reservoir of Guangxi Province
overtopping riskanalysis
risk standard
