摘要
为明确邢台地区夏玉米产量波动的气象要素变化规律和玉米生产潜力发挥的限制因子,利用邢台地区17个气象站1971—2006年气象资料和1983—2006年夏玉米单产数据,对夏玉米生产潜力做出估算,以直线滑动平均法分离气象产量,进行了气象要素和气象产量间的通径分析,结果表明:邢台地区夏玉米光合生产潜力为24818kg/hm2,光温生产潜力为20437kg/hm2,光温水生产潜力为11723kg/hm2,分别是现实生产力的3.6倍、2.9倍、1.7倍,水分条件是限制生产潜力发挥的主要因素;夏玉米趋势产量年际间变化较为平稳,气象产量年际间变化幅度较大,农业生产表现出气候脆弱性,生育期总降水量及总日照时数是年际间气象产量波动的主要因素,生育期总降水量与气象产量呈显著正相关,直接通径系数为0.363,气象产量与生育期总日照时数呈显著负相关,其直接通径系数为-0.385;生育期内以旬为时间序列气象因子中,气象产量与6月上旬日照时数、7月下旬平均气温、7月中旬降水量具有显著相关性。综合分析表明,邢台地区夏玉米生产的气候脆弱性与该地区降水量的年际间波动相关,发育关键期光温条件对夏玉米生产也具有重要的影响。
To observe the influence of meteorological elements on production fluctuations of summer maize and the limiting factors,based on meteorological data from 1971 to 2006 and unit maize yield of from 1983 to 2006 in Xingtai Area,Hebei Province,summer maize photosynthetic-potential,light and temperature -potential,light,temperature and water -potential of the region were estimated. By ＂the average by linear glide＂ used to separation meteorological yield and path analysis on meteorological yield and meteorological factor ,it showed that the maize production potential of photosynthetic,light and temperature,light,temperature and water was 24 818kg/hm^2,20 437 kg/hm^2,and 11 723 kg/hm^2,respectively. That was 3.6 times,2.9 times,and 1.7 times of the reality yield,separately. There was a large potential for maize production,and water had become a major constraint on the potential of summer maize production. Trend yield changed smoothly and meteorological yield interannual changed relatively greatly. It manifested climate frangibility of maize production,and rainfall and sunshine of growing period caused fluctuations. There was obvious positive correlation between meteorological yield and rainfall,and direct path coefficient was 0.363. Meteorological yield and sunshine hours of growth period was negatively correlated with its direct path coefficients of -0.385. Sunshine hours of the first ten days in June,the average temperature of the last ten days in July and rainfall of the middle ten days in July were well correlated with meteorological yield. In a summery,climate frangibility of maize production in Xingtai had mainly relation with the interannual variance of rainfall. And light and temperature conditions of critical growing period played an important role on fluctuation of maize yield.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
2008年第6期207-211,共5页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
河北省气象局科研项目(07ky26)
关键词
夏玉米
气象产量
脆弱性
summer maize,meteorological yield,frangibility
