摘要
分析了某城区的用电量、电力负荷与气温的关系,通过考虑气候因素对年最大负荷的影响,采用将高峰负荷分为基本高峰负荷和最大波动负荷的预测模型进行地区的近期年负荷预测,再考虑波动负荷的影响,最终给出负荷预测的一个范围。负荷预测过程中同时采用各种模型拟和外推的方法对两类负荷分别进行了近期年负荷预测,最后对预测结果进行校验。预测结果表明,这种负荷模型结合现有的规划软件的方法,在实际工程当中能够较大地提高负荷预测的精度。
The relationship between electricity consumption, power load and air temperature of some area is analyzed. Taking account of the effect of climate factor on the annual peak load, a new forecasting model is applied to load forecasting, in which the peak load is divided into basic load and peak fluctuating load. The result of the load forecasting is a range considering the effect of the fluctuating load. During the forecasting, manifold models are applied to forecast the two loads at the same time. The result is verified. The result shows that this new load model connected with the planning software can largely improve the precision of load forecasting in the planning projects.
出处
《现代电力》
2008年第3期28-32,共5页
Modern Electric Power
关键词
最高气温
气候
波动负荷
基础负荷
负荷预测
maximum temperature
climate
fluctuating load
basic load
load forecasting
