摘要
随着我国国民经济的高速发展,天气气候异常变化尤其是气象灾害对经济发展的影响日益增大,尝试用计量经济定量方法探讨了气象条件与经济行业发展的相关关系。以陕西省为研究背景,应用典型相关方法,分析了以气温和降水组合表征的短期气象条件的变化对农业、工业、通信交通运输业和批零销售餐饮业等经济行业GDP的典型相关关系。研究表明,陕西国民经济对该省的气象条件存在明显依赖性,气象高敏感行业包括农业、工业和批发零售业的发展,均与气象条件密切相关,其中,农业和批零销售餐饮业与之呈正相关,工业与之呈负相关。
Along with the rapid development of national economy in our country the influence of abnormal climate change, especially the meteorological disasters on the economic development is gradully increasing. It tries to quantitatively discuss the relationships between short-term change of meteorological conditions and national economy by econometric methods. Taking Shaanxi Province as a background, the canonical correlation analysis method was applied to calculate their correlation. The meteorological conditions are chosen as the combination of air temperature and precipitation, and national economic industries include agriculture, industry, transport, post and telecommunication services and wholesale/retail trade services and so on. The results show that agriculture, industry, wholesale/retail trade services are high meteorology-influenced industries, they all show strong relationships with shortterm meteorological change and in which, agricultural and wholesale/retail trade services have positive correlation, while industry shows negative one.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第3期36-40,共5页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70572309)
2008年中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2008M53)
国家自然科学基金优秀创新群体项目(70121001)
关键词
经济
气象条件
典型相关分析
高气象敏感行业
economy
meteorological condition
canonical correlation analysis
high meteorological impact industry
