摘要
近些年来,我国对外移民的数量增加迅速,对经济增长产生了巨大的推动作用,国际贸易是其中较为突出的一个方面。在总结前人对贸易和移民关系的文献基础上,一方面基于传统的H-O理论建立模型,并得出结论:我国与不同贸易伙伴之间的移民和贸易关系,会因要素禀赋和生产技术的差异而有所不同。另一方面利用1980年-2006年的数据,并采用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验等计量方法,对我国对外贸易和国际移民的总体关系进行了检验。结果表明:我国的对外贸易和国际移民之间不仅存在着正相关关系,而且二者呈现出双向的因果联系,由此引申出相关政策建议。
In recent years, the number of China＇s emigrants has increased rapidly, thus, has promoted international trade and uhimately contributed significantly to its economic growth. Based on the review of the extant studies on the relationship between migration and trade, this paper first builds a model in light of traditional H-O theory, and concludes that the migration-trade relationship between China and its trade partners is divergent due to differences in factor endowment and technology. The paper then proceeds to empirically test the relationship in the case of China by applying co-integration analysis and granger test to data from 1980 to 2006. Our results show that China＇s migration and foreign trade are positively correlated. Moreover, they granger cause each other. Policy implications are drawn in light of the econometric findings.
出处
《山东大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第4期96-103,共8页
Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
关键词
对外贸易
国际移民
协整分析
格兰杰因果检验
foreign trade
international migration
co - integration analysis
granger test
