摘要
将黄河中下游地区小麦条锈病周年活动期划分为秋苗侵染期、越冬休止期、复苏扩展期和春季流行期四个阶段,分阶段选取有植物病害流行学和统计学意义的气象因子,通过归一化处理和加权组合,组成小麦条锈病气象指数,用回归方法建立多时效、归一化小麦条锈病气象预报模式。检验结果显示：气象指数与小麦条锈病发生程度密切相关,其相关系数在0.4257～0.7713;各时段预报模式的回代拟合率达88.9%～100%,2006年度和2007年度的试报结果均正确。证明此气象预报模式的预报时效超前、效果好,且具有动态特点,可用于黄河中下游地区小麦条锈病发生程度的预报。
The yearly activity periods of the stripe rust of wheat in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River were divided into four stages, namely the invading stage for young plant in autumn, overwintering inactive stage, reviving and extending stage and spring epidemic stage. The meteorological factors with the statistical and epidemical significance for the plant diseases were identified by stages. The meteorological indexes for stripe rust of wheat were composed by classification and averaging. The unitary and multi-time-span meteorological forecast models for the stripe rust of wheat were established by regression methods. The verified and application results showed that the meteorological indexes were closely related to the degree of the occurrence of stripe rust of wheat. The correlative coefficient was between 0. 4257 and 0. 7713. The rate of the backtracking and fitting for the forecast models of the different stages was between 88.9% and 100% . The validation results for 2006 and 2007 were satisfied. It was proved that the forecast models could be used in forecasting the occurrence degree of the stripe rust of wheat in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
2008年第3期365-370,共6页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2005Z02)
关键词
条锈病
归一化
指标
模式
应用
Stripe rust of wheat
Unitarity
Index
Model
Application
