摘要
根据近9a来的历史数据，以双指数平滑法，估计了北京市公交服务需求数量近期和中期的变动趋势及需求相关特征．研究发现：（1）未来5a的显性公交服务需求总量平均约为50亿人·次，年均动态自适应服务需求增量区间约为0．6亿～1．4亿人·次；（2）北京市的公共交通服务需求量对经济增长、常住人口总量增长和旅游人数的变动等因素高度不敏感，具有明显的粘性特征；（3）单纯的公交服务价格变动不足以从根本上改变潜在公交消费者的消费倾向．因此，需要进一步考察对于公交财政补贴的传递渠道，并结合路权的再配置方案，以便更好地改善公交消费环境，从而有效刺激公共交通服务需求量的提高．
Based on the past nine years of historical data, a Double Exponential Smoothing （DES） method is used to estimate the public transport services demand （PTSD） in Beijing recently and medium term changes in trends and demand related characteristics. What we find as follow. 1. In the next five years, the total demand for dominant transit services would average about 50 million passengers, with an average annual, the interval of dynamic adaptive incremental service demanding would inhabit about 60 to 140 million people. 2. The PTSD showed stickiness obviously which was highly insensitive to the factors of economic growth, the total resident population and tourism growth changed. 3. Simply transit price decline can hardly change the behavior of latent consumer. Therefore ,we need a further study of transfer channels for financial subsidies. On the other hand, we must combine the reallocation rights of road, in order to improve the consumption environment of public transport, thereby effectively stimulate the PTSD increased.
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》
2008年第4期661-664,共4页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）
基金
北京市自然科学基金项目资助(批准号:8062005)
关键词
公共交通服务
需求量预测
需求特征分析
public transportation service quantity predict properties analysis
