摘要
依据时间序列的平稳性检验可以判定:旅游外汇收入和经济增长两时间序列之间应不是协整的。由于协整是时间序列之间存在长期均衡关系的一种表现方式,因此,与通常的认识相反,在长期的趋势方面,旅游外汇收入与经济增长之间其实便并不存在长期的均衡关系。此外,VAR模型及其Granger因果关系检验也说明,我国的旅游外汇收入与经济增长之间即使是在短期内也是不能确定其相互间因果关系的次序的。既然如此,现阶段将旅游产业作为我国国民经济整体发展的"支柱产业"、"先导产业"、"重点产业"的时机便并不成熟。
The stable inspection of time alignment can determine the incoordination between tourism foreign exchange revenue and economic growth. As coordination is an expression of long-term relation of equilibrium between time alignment, in terms of long-term trend, contrary to our thinking, there does not exist long-term relation of equilibrium between tourism foreign exchange revenue and economic growth. Moreover, the inspection of VAR Model and Granger causality indicates that there does not fix alignment of causality between tourism revenue and economic growth in our country in the short term. Since it is so, time is not mature at the present stage to look upon tourism industry as ＂pillar industry＂, ＂guide industry＂ and ＂key industry＂ in the overall development of China＇ s national economy.
出处
《旅游学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第8期30-33,共4页
Tourism Tribune
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(项目编号:07BJY137)研究成果
关键词
旅游外汇收入
国民经济增长贡献
协整检验
均衡关系
tourism foreign exchange national economic growth
coordinate equilibrium revenue
contribution to inspection
relation of
