摘要
汉江发源于陕西省秦岭南麓，在其上游地区，局地性的洪灾或旱灾较易频繁发生。为改进洪水预报精度，构建了用于汉江上游地区的基于大尺度分布式水文模型和气象模型耦合的洪水预报系统，并于2007年6～8月在该流域的出口控制站白河站进行了流量模拟试验。其间，利用LSHM水文模型（5km×5km水平网格）分别基于地面气象观测资料和MM5模型（最内层水平空间尺度9km×9km）的预报产品对白河站进行流量模拟试验：同时，也利用MM5的24h预见期信息进行逐日流量作业预报试验。初步结果表明，将分布式水文模型与气象模型耦合应用进行洪水预报具有较好的发展潜力，值得推广应用。
Flood forecasting can be improved by coupling atmospheric and hydrological models. With the increasing development of large scale distributed hydrological models, large tests and operational applications have been performed with coupling meteorological-hydrological model system. In order to evaluate the capability and adaptability of a large scale hydrological model applied in the upper Hanjiang River Basin, a grid-based large scale hydrological model （LSHM, grid cell size around 5 × 5 km） has been rebuilt and employed to mainly determine flow simulation driven by both gauged data during the period of the year 1996-2006 and MM5 during the period of June 1 to August 30, 2007, respectively. The upper Hanjiang River Basin is a humid climate region, which is part of the biggest tributary of the Yangtze River in China and local flood or drought events tend to easily occur with high-frequency. In the model experiments, the AA model, which belongs to the complementary relationship approach, has been applied to estimate directly the actual evapotranspiration based on the meteorological observations. Besides, flow simulations have mainly been performed respectively driven by two sets of meteorological input data： ① surface observation data from station measurements, and ② forecasting data from high resolution mesoscale meteorological model （MM5, horizontal grid cell size 9 - 9 km for the innermost domain）. In addition, an operational flow forecasting experiment has been applied with fixed lead time of 24 hours during the period of a severe flood event. The preliminary results are satisfactory and show a good potential for coupling meteorological model with hydrological model for the purpose of forecasting.
出处
《水利水电快报》
2008年第8期1-5,21,共6页
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