摘要
指出了施工企业做年维修费用计划时存在的不准确问题,研究了指数平滑法和季节周期预测法的基本原理及计算方法,通过实例分析比较,指出了指数平滑法和季节周期预测法在工程机械大修费预测中应用的优缺点。结果表明,在工程机械大修费预测中选取季节周期预测法可得到较高的预测精度,能够满足施工企业做年维修费用计划时的决策需要。
The question which exists when construction enterprise is making aunual maintenance costs is pointed out. The fundamental principle and calculating method of exponential smoothing and season cycle forecasting are studied. Based on the analysis and the contrast of example, the advantage and disadvantage of two methods used in forecasting heavy maintain cost of construction machinery are pointed out. The results indicate that season cycle forecasting is more precise in forecasting heavy maintenance cost of construction machinery, and could satisfy the demand of construction enterprise for making annual maintenance cost plan.
出处
《筑路机械与施工机械化》
北大核心
2008年第10期75-77,共3页
Road Machinery & Construction Mechanization
关键词
指数平滑法
季节周期预测法
工程机械大修费
预测
exponential smoothing
season cycle forecasting
heavy maintenance cost of construction machinery
forecasting
