摘要
为更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品,对2008年6—8月T639模式进行天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本模式进行了对比分析。结果表明:3种模式均对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。综合来看,ECMWF模式对各系统及要素的预报最接近实况;日本模式和T639模式稍差,稳定性不如ECMWF模式;特别是T639模式对0808号台风凤凰(FUNG-WONG)路径及强度的预报与实况差异较大,而ECMWF及日本模式预报相对准确。
In order to better use the T639 products, some synoptic verifications about its mediumrange forecasting in 2008 summer are made in comparison with the counterparts of ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that three models have good performances in the aspect of predicting the large-scale circulation evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude area. As a whole, ECMWF model is better in forecasting most weather systems compared with the T639 and Japan models. Especially, T639 model has a large error in predicting path and intensity of typhoon FUNG-WONG, whereas ECMWF and Japan models are relatively accurate.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第11期111-116,共6页
Meteorological Monthly
