摘要
提高短期负荷预测精度和计算速度一直是研究的热点问题之一。针对不同负荷预测方法的预测特性,提出了特性互补的组合预测新思路,建立了基于二阶自适应系数法和移动样本倒指数法的组合预测模型,采用最优组合预测与递归等权组合预测相结合的方法确定组合系数,并进行实时监测修正。结合甘肃电网的实际进行了短期负荷预测,结果表明,该方法计算速度快、预测精度高,具有一定的工程实用价值。
It is important to improve the accuracy and calculation speed of load forecasting for power industry. Based on the characteristics of load forecasting methods, the combined forecasting method of second order self-adaptive method and inverted index model is proposed. Meanwhile, the combination of the optimum combination forecast model and the equivalent weight recurrence combination forecast model is ,used to solve the optimum weight coefficients with real-time monitoring and correcting. The combined forecas- ting is applied to Gansu power system. The result shows that both the calculation speed and the precision are satisfactory.
出处
《现代电力》
2008年第6期21-26,共6页
Modern Electric Power
关键词
短期负荷预测
特性分析
二阶自适应
倒指数模型
组合预测
short-term load forecasting
characteristic analysis
second order self-adaptive
inverted index model
combined forecasting
