摘要
在分析南方电网各主要城市供电可靠性历史数据的基础上,结合各城市电网所处的发展阶段以及城市经济发展情况,综合应用基于历史数据的供电可靠性趋势预测方法和考虑相关影响因素的供电可靠性预测方法,对"十一五"期间南方电网各主要城市年度供电可靠性指标进行了预测,根据相关原则并结合电网的具体情况综合考虑确定合理的供电可靠性目标值。提出了实现供电可靠性目标的技术措施和管理措施,旨在引导城市供电企业的合理投资,提升南方电网各主要城市的供电可靠性水平。
Based on the analysis on historical data of power supply reliability of main cities supplied by China Southern Power Grid and considering the development stage of these urban power networks as well as the economic development of these cities, by means of comprehensively applying both historical data based power supply reliability trend forecasting method and power supply reliability forecasting method that takes relevant impacting factors into account, the annual power supply reliability indices of these cities during the 1 lth Five-Year Plan are forecasted; according to the principle of relevance and combining with concrete circumstances of urban power networks, the reasonable target values of power supply reliability are determined. To lead rational investment in urban power supply enterprises and improve power supply reliability level of main cities supplied by China Southern Power Grid, the technical and management measures to implement power supply reliability objectives are proposed.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第8期48-54,共7页
Power System Technology
关键词
南方电网
城市电网
供电可靠性
指标预测
China Southem Power Grid
urban electricpower network, power supply reliability
indices forecasting
