摘要
李痘病毒是危害核果类果树的重要病原物,具有传播迅速的特点,已被多个国家列为检疫性有害生物。本文尝试利用Dymex模型和Maxent模型预测李痘病毒在中国的潜在适生区,通过试验验证和对预测模型技术参数AUC的比较分析,认定利用Maxent模型预测的李痘病毒在中国的潜在适生区具有一定的科学性,对我国制定植物检疫法规具有一定的参考价值,同时也为今后其它植物病毒的定量风险分析工作提供有益的借鉴。
Abstract Plum pox virus （PPV）was pathogenic agent which harmed the stone fruit trees. The plant virus owned the nature of spreading quickly and had been listed as quarantine pest by many countries. In this paper both Dymex model and Maxent model was chosen for predicting potential distribution of PPV. By test and analyzing to technical parameter AUC, Maxent model was suitable for predicting potential distribution of PPV in China. The model was useful for establishing regulation in China. At same time the useful experience would be utilized for quantitative pest risk analysis of other plant virus.
出处
《植物检疫》
北大核心
2009年第3期1-4,共4页
Plant Quarantine
基金
科技部国家科技支撑计划课题项目(2006BAK10B01-1-1)
