摘要
将水利工程风险分析分为单一和综合两种情况进行归纳分析。总结了风险分析在水利工程中应用的各种分析方法,并就各种方法在研究应用中的适用条件、相关关系和优缺点进行评述。指出单一风险在水利工程中的应用主要以数理统计方法为主,分析水利工程的随机不确定性。综合风险能够考虑水利工程的随机、模糊和灰色等不确定性,但存在着相关性、一致性、行为因素影响分析等技术难点。给出了正确选择评价方法、结合失事后果进行分析等一些建议。
The risk analysis in hydraulic engineering system is classified into the single risk assessment and the comprehensive risk assessment in this paper. Various risk analysis methods, developed and applied in hydraulic engineering system, are summarized including the applicable conditions, advantages and disadvantages of each method and their interrelationship. The main methods for the single risk assessment are the mathematical statistics methods, concerning the stochastic uncertainties of the hydraulic system. The comprehensive ones, on the one hand, can take into account the stochastic, fuzzy and grey uncer- tainties ; on the other hand, there still exist some problems, such as the correlation, consistence and impact analysis of behavior factors. Based on the review, some suggestions are putforward, such as choosing appropriate assessment method and inte- grating the probability with the consequences in risk analysis.
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第3期453-459,共7页
Advances in Water Science
基金
"十一五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAB04A09)~~
关键词
风险分析
水利工程
综述
risk analysis
hydraulic engineering
review
