摘要
分别应用直方图法、信息扩散法和内集一外集模型评估方法。对四川的历史地震灾害进行了致灾因子风险分析。这3种方法在高风险水平区间计算所得到的风险值比较一致。分析结果认为：四川发生8．0级左右地震的超越概率大约是0．03。换言之，四川这种风险水平的地震为33-34a一遇。根据这一结果，四川地区上次发生7．9级地震的时间是1973年，那么本次发生该风险水平的地震时间应该是2006--2007年，与实际上的2008年四川汶川地震发生的时间相差1～2a。
Based on the data of historical earthquakes occurred in the Sichuan Province during the period of 1933-2001, this paper analyzes the risk of earthquake hazards in the Sichuan Province. The results calculated by using the methods of histogram, information diffusion and interior-outer set model are all similar. The probability of earthquakes exceeding 8.0 in magnitude is 0.03. This means that an earthquake of M≈8.0 would occur in the next 33-34 years. According to this result, the year in which an earthquake of M=7.9 occurred is 1973. Therefore, an earthquake of this risk level would occur in 2006 or 2007. There is an error of 1-2 years between the year of the earthquake occurred in Wenchuan, Sichuan province in 2008 and the year estimated.
出处
《热带地理》
北大核心
2009年第3期280-284,共5页
Tropical Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(40771007)
国家科技支撑计划专题资助项目(2006BAD20B01-02)
关键词
地震
风险评价
直方图法
信息扩散法
内集-外集模型
earthquake
risk analysis
histogram method
information diffusion
interior-outer set modelion diffusion
interior-outer set model
