中国出口贸易增长的可持续性研究——基于贸易随机前沿模型的分析被引量：63

Research on China's Export Growth Persistence

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摘要本文借助随机前沿分析模型,将中国出口贸易的增长分解为贸易潜力变化、贸易效率变化、贸易投入变化三个方面。研究发现,贸易潜力呈递增态势,贸易效率呈递减态势;贸易潜力的上升远大于贸易效率的下降,两者共同决定了中国出口贸易迅速增长的趋势;贸易投入对于贸易增长的作用小于贸易潜力,但不可忽视。由于中国的贸易增长主要是源于贸易潜力的推动,因此中国的出口增长是可持续的。但是,中国的贸易效率较低,因此在加速对外开放的同时,必须深化国内市场改革。 Based on the trade stochastic frontier model, we decompose China＇s export growth into trade potential change, trade efficiency change and trade input change. The conclusion is ： trade potential shows an increasing trend; trade efficiency shows a decreasing trend; trade potential increase overwhelms trade efficien- cy decrease, which determines the fast growth trend of China＇s export trade. ; trade input effects on trade growth is smaller than that of trade potential, however it can not be neglected. As China＇s export trade growth attributes a lot to export potential growth, China＇s export growth is persistent. However, with the low trade efficiency, we must deepen market reform, while accelerating foreign opening.

作者施炳展李坤望

机构地区南开大学国际经济贸易系

出处《数量经济技术经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2009年第6期64-74,共11页 Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

关键词贸易潜力贸易效率随机前沿模型 Trade Potential Trade Efficiency Stochastic Frontier Model

分类号 F125.4 [经济管理—世界经济]

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