摘要
恒生指数是反映香港股票市场每天平均股价变动情况的一种股票指数,构建恒生指数回归模型可预测恒生指数的波动趋势。本文运用相关统计软件,通过相关分析从四大行业中找出与恒生指数相关性较大并最具行业代表性的成分股:中银香港、香港中华煤气、新鸿基地产和中国移动,并在此基础上建立恒生指数与所选取成分股之间的回归模型。从一般回归分析看,中银香港每变动一单位可使恒指波动205.144点,香港中华煤气每变动1单位可使恒指波动227.526点,新鸿基地产每变动1单位可使恒指波动40.818点,中国移动每变动1单位可使恒指波动86.183点;从弹性模型看,中银香港每变动1%可使恒指波动0.149%,香港中华煤气每变动1%可使恒指波动0.068%,新鸿基地产每变动1%可使恒指波动0.2%,中国移动每变动1%可使恒指波动0.278%。
The Heng Sheng Index is a stock index reflecting the variation circumstances of the average stock price every day about the hongkong stock market; By establishing the regression model, we can predict the fluctuate tendency of Heng Sheng index. By means of the relevance statistics software, we find out the stocks that the more relevance with Heng Sheng index and the most typical in each industry from the four kind of industry by relevance analysis： the Bank of China （Hong Kong）, the HK ＆ China Gas, the SHK Porp, the China Mobile; and establish the regression model between the hengsheng index and the stocks based on the relevance analysis. The conclusion of the general regression analysis is that the Bank of China （Hong Kong）, the HK ＆ China Gas, the SIlK Porp, the China Mobile can make the hengsheng index fluctuate 205. 144 point; 227. 526 point ; 40. 818 point ; 86. 183 point when they variate one unit. From the elasticity model, when the Bank of China （Hong Kong）, the HK ＆ China Gas, the SHK Porp, the China Mobile respectively variates 1 % , they can make the hengsheng index fluctuate 0. 149% ,0. 068%, 0. 2 % and 0. 278% correspondingly.
出处
《中南林业科技大学学报（社会科学版）》
2009年第4期71-74,共4页
Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology（Social Sciences）
关键词
恒生指数
中银香港
香港中华煤气
中国移动
Hengsheng Index
Bank of China （Hong Kong）
HK
China Gas
China Mobile
