摘要
灾害应急物流管理是灾害应急管理体系中的重要组成部分,而灾害应急物资需求预测则是灾害应急物流管理的前提条件,"5.12汶川地震"更突出了其在灾害应急物流管理中的重要作用。针对传统灾害应急物资需求预测方法的不足,基于归一化处理后的欧氏算法,寻求最佳相似源案例,以确定源案例中的关键因素,建立了案例推理——关键因素模型,为目标案例进行灾害应急物资需求预测。最后将该模型运用于"汶川地震"的实例中,进行物资需求预测,验证了模型科学有效。
Emergency logistics management in disaster is an important part of disaster emergency management system, Emergency material demand forecast in disaster is a prerequisite for disaster emergency logistics management, whose importance is highlighted in ＂5.12 earthquake in Wenchuan＇, This paper addressed oneself to the deficient of traditional methods of emergency material demand forecasts, came up with the best similar source cases by normalization of the Euclidean algorithm and determined the key factors in the source case. and then established case-based reasoning-the key factor model to forecast emergency material demands for objective case. Finally. the model is used in ＂Wenchuan earthquake＂ example to forecast material demand to verify the scientific and effectiveness of the model.
出处
《物流科技》
2009年第10期11-13,共3页
Logistics Sci-Tech
关键词
应急物资
案例推理
关键因素
欧氏算法
需求预测模型
emergency materials
case-based reasoning
key factors
euclidean algorithm
material demand model
