摘要
本文利用预报区域1960～1995年春季逐日气象资料，分析得到了倒春寒天气的客观划分标准、气候特点、主要影响系统及其形势特征。采用较新特色的折扣回归模型，建立了三、四月份各旬倒春寒的集成预报方程；利用短期预报资料，研制出若干预报判据和消空指标，建立了短期预报回归方程，并编制出具有一定特色的预报服务系统。经1997年实际应用，倒春寒天气的预报准确率在经验预报的基础上提高20％左右。
The objective division for Late Spring Cold(LSC)weather is built using thedaily data of springs from l960 to 1995 in the associated area in this paper. The climatic char-acteristics of LSC and the pattern of influential weather systems have also been studied. Anadvanced discount regressive model has been taken here to build ensemble prediction equa-tions for lO-day forecasting of LSC in March or in April. By using short range forcasting da-ta,some forecasting criteria and emptying indices have been given to estiblish the regressiveequations. A forecasting service system with certain distinguishing features is constructed,which had been put into pratical use for forecasting the LSC of 1997- The rate of predictionaccuracy has been improved about 20% with comparison of empirical forecasting,which is ex-actly what we expected.
出处
《气象科学》
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第3期288-294,共7页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
关键词
倒春寒
划分
短期预报
中期预报
天气预报
Late Spring Cold
dividing
medium and short range forecasting
