摘要
在经济发展过程中,大量优质耕地被占用已成为严重制约我国可持续发展的重大挑战。本文基于脱钩理论,运用经济合作与发展组织（OECD）提出的脱钩指数计算模型和Tapio等划分的脱钩状态,构建脱钩模型,计算脱钩弹性,建立脱钩程度坐标图,并以河北省为例分析各阶段脱钩状态及其原因,以期指导经济发展过程中的耕地保护问题。研究表明：1990年-1999年脱钩弹性值变化平缓,由强脱钩向复钩状态变化,建设占用耕地压力增大;2000年-2005年脱钩弹性值变化剧烈,由强脱钩向复钩状态变化,建设占用耕地压力较前一阶段急剧减小后增大;2006年-2007年脱钩弹性减小,呈现弱脱钩状态,建设占用耕地压力减小。总体来看,建设占用耕地与非农GDP产值的关系曲线呈现＂M＂型变化,耕地保护政策、措施实施效果明显。随着经济发展,在未来一段时期建设占有耕地与非农GDP产值关系有向复钩状态发展的趋势,建设占用耕地压力将增大,为此应加大建设占用耕地管理力度,采用节约集约利用土地的政策和措施。
With opening to the outside world, China＇ s economy has made signiciant progress during last three decades. Rapid growth of economy inevitably requires a large quantity of resources, particularly arable lands. Arable land plays an important role in ensuring food security. The conflict between protection of arable land and growth of economy will become more and more intense, which draws much concern from the world. The problem that a large quantity of high quality arable lands is being occupied by construction has been an issue on the sustainable development of the economy in China. The relationship between occupied arable land and growth of economy has therefore been a meaningful focus. Based on a theory of decoupling, the authors employed indices of decoupling proposed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development （OECD） and the status of decoupling proposed by Tapio to develop a model of decoupling. Then, the elasticity of decoupling was calculated and a coordinate graph of decoupling degree was produced.. In particular, the authors investigated the relationship between occupied arable land and growth of economy in Hebei province, China, from 1988 to 2007. Also, we discussed the status of decoupling at different stages, analyzed the results and tried to find out reasons associated with arable land occupied in order to address the problems. It was concluded that at the first stage from 1990 to 1999, elasticity values of decoupling vary smoothly, changing from a kind of strong decoupling status to a re-coupling status. The pressure from arable land occupied by construction increased. At the second stage from 2000 to 2005, elasticity values of decoupling changed significantly, showing a transition from a strong decoupling to a re-coupling. The pressure from arable land occupied by construction first decreased significantly and then increased. At the third stage from 2006 to 2007, elasticity values of decoupling decreased, showing the status becoming a weak decoupling, which could be indicative of increases in pressure from arable land occupied by construction. As a whole, elasticity values of the decoupling between arable land occupied by construction and non-agricultural GDP exhibited an ＂M＂-shaped curve. This means arable land protection has already shown a marked positive effect. With a further development of economy in the near future, the status of decoupling will possibly show a trend to become re-coupling. The pressure from arable land occupied by construction will be likely to increase. So the management for arable land occupied by construction should be strengthened. Necessary policies and measures, such as economical and intensive utilization of arable land resources should be taken.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第11期1940-1946,共7页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:70673097)
关键词
建设占用耕地
非农GDP
脱钩分析
河北省
Arable land occupation by construction
Non-agricultural GDP
Decoupling
Hebei Province
