摘要
为了揭示内河航运与区域经济间的作用机理,以上海内河航运为研究对象,建立了基于Logistic曲线和协整理论的内河航运与区域经济的伴生关系分析模型,并分别应用生产函数法、主成分分析法、方差分析法和数据包络法测算了内河航运量对GDP的贡献度。计算结果表明:内河航运与区域经济具有类似的发展规律,即在发展初期增速很快,发展到一定阶段后,增长率逐渐减慢,直到平稳状态,两者之间存在着很强的伴生关系;内河航运对区域经济的贡献度均稳定在2%～4%之间。
In order to discover the interaction mechanism between inland waterway transport and local economy, taking Shanghai inland waterway transport as an example, their correlation analysis models were built based on logistic curve and cointegration theory. The contribution rate of inland waterway transport to GDP was calculated respectively by using production function theory, principal component analysis, variance analysis and data envelopment analysis. Calculation result shows that inland waterway transport and local economy have similar development regulars and strong associated relationship. The growth rate of early stage increases rapidly, and then gradually slows down until the steady state. The contribution rate of inland waterway transport to local economy is about 2%-4%. 9 tabs, 2 figs, 10 refs.
出处
《交通运输工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第6期97-101,共5页
Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
基金
上海市港口管理局科研项目(2006)
关键词
交通运输经济
内河航运
区域经济
生产函数
主成分分析
方差分析
数据包络分析
transport economy
inland waterway transport
local economy
production function
principal component analysis
variance analysis
data envelopment analysis
