摘要
本文主要以中国的28年保费数据为基础,结合中国保监会1980-2008年中国总保费的数据。从非机理方面建模,采用完全的灰色理论,并基于样本数据改进了现有模型。在充分分析问题的基础上,得出未来一段时间内灰色理论模型及相应指标,预测我国2009-2015年的保费规模。预测结果表明我国的保险规模从2007年开始保费规模迅速攀升,此后将呈现出高速增长的态势。并在定量预测的基础上,采用定性分析的方法,对我国的保险业未来发展趋势进行分析,并提出保险业持续发展的相应对策。
In this paper, the author mainly takes China＇s 28 year insurance premium data as a foundation, combining with the data of China＇s total insurance premium from 1980 to 2008 republished by China Insurance Regulatory Commission. Estimates directly and analyze the level of China＇s insurance based on the full analysis of the date. And obtain the grey theoretical model of the future and corresponding indicators from the modeling of non-mechanism, then we can calculate the premium date from 2009-2015 each year in size. After prediction, the forecast results show that the China＇s insurance premiums climb rapidly beginning in 2007 and will be in the trend of rapid growth in future. Based on the prediction result, Chinese insurance future development trend is qualitative analysis in the paper.
出处
《技术经济与管理研究》
北大核心
2010年第1期119-122,共4页
Journal of Technical Economics & Management
基金
福建工程学院科研人才基金(E0600068)
关键词
保费规模
灰色理论
数学建模
保险趋势
Premium proportion
GM （ 1,1 ）theory
Mathematical modeling
Insurance trend
