摘要
有效市场假说在金融市场效率问题讨论中长期占据主导地位,凸现的是"公平游戏"精神下的市场效率内涵;而基于EMH的实证研究,多数依赖随机游走模型。EMH缺乏应有的规范性因素,现有实证研究尚不能令人信服地判定新兴的中国农产品期货市场具有何种效率。理解金融市场结构的有效方法是在期货市场基本功能实现基础上,摆脱独立、正态或有限方差的假设,探索中国农产品期货市场特性。
Efficient Market Hypothesis （EMH） has long been regarded as mainstream ,heory in financial market efficiency discussions, focusing on the spirit of ＂fair game＂. The Random Walker Model was usually introduced in positive analysis based on theoretical frame of EMH. However, conclusions from those practices in China＇ s agricultural future market are unconvincing, partly due to absence of normative factors. A better frame to describe efficiency in China＇ s agricultural future market will take future market functions into consideration and use more practical non-lineal way with no supposition of independent, identically distributed distribution.
出处
《南京航空航天大学学报（社会科学版）》
2009年第4期47-51,共5页
Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics（Social Sciences）
关键词
有效市场假说
市场效率
农产品期货市场
Efficient Market Hypothesis
market efficiency
agricultural future market
