摘要
对近几十年浙江中部汛期降水演变规律进行了分析,并运用多元线性回归方法对浙中汛期降水进行预报建模。结果表明,浙中汛期降水多年平均呈现西多东少、南北多中间少的空间分布特征,6月降水为每年汛期降水的峰值;准9年振荡周期贯穿整个浙中汛期降水历史序列,同时1967—1982年存在准4年振荡周期,而准5年振荡周期则从1978年持续至今;浙中汛期降水主要受南北半球中高纬环流系统扰动影响,且环流敏感区域数北半球多于南半球;通过多元线性回归建立的预报模型降水回归值曲线与降水实测值曲线拟合效果较为理想,复相关系数达0.81,预报方程通过95%信度检验,并以2009年汛期降水进行模型适用性检验。
The spatial distribution of the flood period rainfall over the years in Zhejiang central region is analyzed and it is shown that the rainfall amount in northern and southern part is more than that in central part, and the precipitation in western part is more than that in eastern part. June precipitation is the greatest during the annual flood season. There is a nine-year cycle throughout the precipitation sequence. Four-year cycle exists from 1967 to 1982, and five-year cycle appears since 1978 until now. Zhejiang central region flood season precipitation is mainly affected by the disturbances of the high-middle latitude atmospheric circulation system in both of northern and southern hemispheres, and the number of circulation sensitive areas in northern hemisphere is greater than that in southern hemisphere. Forecasting model is established by using multiple linear regression method. And the results of the forecasting model simulation are close to historical observations. The prediction equation passes 95% reliability test. The applicability of the prediction equation is tested bv using 2009 data and the resuhs show that the qualitative prediction is successful.
出处
《科技导报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第2期96-100,共5页
Science & Technology Review
关键词
汛期降水
演变规律
预报模型
flood period rainfall
evolution discipline
forecasting model
