摘要
对中国1956—2007年农业现代化、工业化、进出口贸易与经济增长之间关系的动态研究表明,它们之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系;农业现代化及工业化与经济增长之间均存在着双向的Granger因果关系,进出口贸易是农业现代化的Granger原因;工业化、进口贸易和经济增长在短期内均会阻碍农业现代化进程,但在中长期内均会促进农业现代化水平的提高;出口贸易会对农业现代化水平的提高产生持续的推动和促进作用。
The results of the empirical studies on the dynamic relationship among agricultural modernization, industrialization, import and export trade and economic growth indicate that, there is a long - term stable cointegrate relationship among them. Agricultural modernization and industrialization are Granger Causalities to each other, so do agricultural modernization and economic growth. Import and export trade are Granger Cause of agricultural modernization. Industrialization, import trade and economic growth are not conducive to agricultural modernization in short - term, but they will promote agricultural modernization progress in medium and long - term. Export trade has a continual driving force to promote agricultural modernization.
出处
《广西财经学院学报》
2010年第1期34-40,共7页
Journal of Guangxi University of Finance and Economics
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"发展农民合作组织与农业生产经营组织化研究"(06JZD0019)子项目的部分研究成果
关键词
农业现代化
工业化
贸易
检验
agricultural modernization
industrialization
trade
test
