摘要
以历次全国性有关生育率的各项调查数据为基础,介绍了中国当前的低生育水平和低生育动态模式。依据近几年全国性有关生育意愿的调查数据,计算了在有计划生育政策条件下和无计划生育政策条件下的中国育龄妇女的意愿生育率。在有和无计划生育政策条件下,中国育龄妇女的意愿生育水平均低于更替水平,生育意愿在一定的相对较短的时期内可以保持稳定。使用官方公布的总和生育率与计算的育龄妇女的总和意愿生育率数据绘制了低生育水平和意愿生育水平之间的差距图。在低生育时代下中国育龄妇女的生育意愿和生育行为存在差距的现象与世界普遍存在的现象是相一致的。
On the basis of National Surveys data on the fertility, this research introduces the current low fertility level and low fertility dynamic pattern in China. According to the National Surveys data on the fertility desire in recent years, this research calculates the desired fertility rate of women at childbearing age under the Family Planning Policy and without Family Planning Policy. The results in this research show that the desired fertility rates of women at childbearing age in China is lower than the replacement level, and fertility desire keeps stable relatively in a certain or short period. This research draws a figure on the gap between low fertility rate and desired fertility rate in China used the observed TFR in the official reports and calculated desired fertility rate of women at childbearing age, which will illustrated convincingly that the consistent phenomenon on the divergence between fertility desire and childbearing behavior of women at childbearing age between China and other countries in the world in the era of low fertility.
出处
《人口与发展》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第1期27-37,67,共12页
Population and Development
关键词
总和生育率
意愿生育率
差距
走势
total fertility rate
desired fertility rate
divergence
dynamic
