摘要
在分析了水电工程项目风险特性的基础上,论述了水电工程在施工过程中影响投资的主要风险。应用改进后的蒙特卡洛随机模拟方法进行投资风险分析,针对水电工程过程性和动态性的特点,研究了面向施工过程的动态投资风险管理方法,提出一个能够将风险管理与投资管理与控制有机结合的系统模型,并介绍了该模型的要点。然后在以上研究的基础上,分析并且提出了结合风险管理的水电工程投资动态管理与控制方法,绘制了其工作流程,并且论述其与传统的管理办法相比较具有的优势。最后进行了工程实例分析。
On the basis of analyzing risk characteristics and factors of hydropower projects, discoursing the construction of hydropower projects in the course of the impact of investment risk. The risk analysis method of combinative using the improvement Monte- Carlo stochastic simulation is presented, dynamic investment risk method aiming at construction process is presented, studies the dynamics of the construction process for investment risk management methods, proposing a risky management and investment management and control of the organic integration of the system model and describing the main point of the mode, and introducing the main point of the model. Then on the basis of the analysis, bringing out the risky management of hydropower project management and control of dynamic investment approach, drawing its work processes, and discussing its relationship with traditional management methods, comparing the advantages, finally, practical engineering analysis is made.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2010年第2期139-143,共5页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
关键词
投资风险分析
蒙特卡洛方法
动态管理
投资控制
investment risk analysis
Monte-Carlo method
dynamic management
invest control
