摘要
构造了中国18个部门的能源—经济—环境投入产出模型,分析了能源消耗系数的变动规律,对2020年我国能源消费量与温室气体排放量进行了预测。结果表明:我国2020年的能源消费总量为29.5亿t(标准煤),等于1990年的299％,1995年的229％;煤炭消费最为26亿t,石油消费量为4.1亿t,天然气消费量为1420亿m^3,水电6400亿kW·h;能源消费弹性系数为0.43左右;CO_2排放量为17.50亿t(碳当量)。
Firstly, analysis on the relationship between energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission, secondly, establishment of a input-output model to estimate the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission in China in the beginning of the 21st century, and finally, some measures were submitted to induce the greenhouse gas emission in China were presented.
出处
《上海环境科学》
CAS
CSCD
1999年第2期67-69,共3页
Shanghai Environmental Sciences
关键词
能源消费
温室气体
模型预测
投入产出
中国
Energy consumption Greenhouse gas Model prediction Input-output China
