摘要
根据漳河水库1963～2008年年来水量变化的实测资料,利用R/S分析的原理和方法计算了H指数,建立了R(τ)/S(τ)与τ的关系式,并对未来水库来水趋势进行了预测。结果表明:预测趋势与实际情况基本吻合,R/S分析方法也是水库未来来水趋势预测的一种有效途径,有较高的预报精度和应用价值。
The hurst exponent was calculated using the principle and methodology of R/S method according to the observation data of the Zhanghe Reservoir water inflow from 1963 ～ 2008,and the formula for the relationship between R（τ） /S（τ） and τ was established. The method was used to predict water inflow tendency of the reservoir. The results show that the prediction tendencies agree with the actual conditions; and the method is one of the effective approaches for water inflow tendency forecast of reservoir in the future,for it has high prediction precision and practical value.
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
2010年第3期174-176,共3页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
关键词
水库来水量
变化趋势
H指数
R/S分析
water inflow of reservoir
change tendency
hurst exponent
R/S method
