摘要
近年来海河流域下垫面情况发生了显著变化,对径流及洪水成果产生明显影响。通过选取流域内大清河阜平站以上山区作为典型区,利用趋势回归分析法,分析了汛期暴雨量、洪峰流量及次洪量的变化趋势。并利用山区雨洪模型重演了80年代前典型洪水,通过模拟值与实测值的差反映了流域下垫面变化对洪水径流的影响。总体上,下垫面变化对10年一遇以上洪水的洪峰和洪量影响较小,一般为5%以内;而对3～10年一遇洪水的洪峰和洪量的影响较大,一般为10%～30%,平均为17.8%。
The land cover has changed obviously in recent years in Haihe River Basin,and affected the annual runoff and flood processes.In this paper,Fuping subcatchment,mainly mountainous area,was selected as a typical study area to make analysis.The trends of precipitation,flood peaks and volumes were analyzed by regression method.The parameters in hydrological model were also calibrated before 1980 and after 1980,then we used the parameters after 1980 to simulate the floods before 1980,and quantified the effects of the land use/land cover change on floods.We draw the conclusion that land cover change has a minor influence on large floods which is less than 5%,and has a major effect on floods of 3 ～10 year return period which is between 10 ～30%.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第8期27-30,共4页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金(50879051)资助
关键词
下垫面变化
水文序列
暴雨洪水
统计分析
模拟分析
sublayer and land-cover change
hydrological time series
rainstorm flood
trend analysis
model analysis
