摘要
通过问卷调查法、专家评估法和事件树分析法对风险进行识别与分析,采用风险矩阵法确定风险等级,并通过Borda排序法对风险进行排序。以北京市某城区为例对突发事件进行风险评估,实现了突发事件应急管理的"关口再前移",为政府预防和控制风险提供了决策参考与处置依据。研究表明,采用风险矩阵法并结合Borda排序法评估城市区域突发事件的风险是可行且有效的。
This article is to present our studies on the hazard assessments of the urban area emergencies based on the hazard matrix and Borda ranking method. As is known, the emergency hazard assessment is essential to prevent and control the urban area safe and security situation. In doing such kinds of research, all the available means are used, such as the questionnaire survey, expert assessment method, event tree analysis of hazards. Then hazards of this nature are usually classified into 4 grades, that is, low, medium, high, and very high by the hazard matrix. At the same level of various types of hazards, Borda ranking method is also used to categorize the levels of the hazards. In proceeding with our research, we have taken social security incidents in some area of Beijing city for example. The resuits of our investigation show that, the three high-hazards involve the crimes against the public or private properties such as theft, pickpocketing and fraud, then collective （individual） petition events and the terrorist and sabotage activities ; the theft case of dangerous goods belongs to moderate risk; the three low-hazards involve the incidents against the ethnic or religious groups, the troubles made by Falun Gong diehards in the public places, and finally the troubles made by mental insane patients in the public places. All the above hazards assessment methods help the government to provide a targeted basis for making decisions and disposals to prevent city emergencies by realizing the ＂gateway and then moving forward＂ in the emergency response management.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第4期213-216,共4页
Journal of Safety and Environment
