摘要
根据内蒙古荒漠草原1961-2007年11个气象站点的年平均气温、年降水量资料,采用Thornthwaite Me-morial模型计算牧草气候生产力,运用气候诊断分析、相关分析等方法分析荒漠草原年平均气温、年降水量、牧草气候生产力的时空变化特征及趋势,并探讨了不同气候变化情景对内蒙古荒漠草原牧草气候生产力的影响。结果表明：（1）近47年来内蒙古荒漠草原年平均气温呈极显著的上升趋势,荒漠草原东北部和西部增温幅度相对较大;年降水量总体变化趋势不明显,但东北部地区年降水量明显减少。（2）牧草气候生产力总体为不显著的线性增加趋势,其中荒漠草原中部牧草气候生产力增加显著。（3）未来＂暖湿型＂气候可使牧草气候生产力提高,＂暖干型＂气候使牧草气候生产力降低,＂冷湿型＂气候也有利于牧草气候生产力的增长。（4）年降水量与牧草气候生产力有极其显著的相关性,降水是影响内蒙古荒漠草原牧草气候生产力的关键因子。
Based on the observations derived from 11 meteorological stations in desert steppe of Inner Mongolia from 1961 to 2007,spatial-temporal patterns and their changes of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation were analyzed by way of climatic diagnose and correlation analysis.Forage potential climatic productivity（FPCP） was estimated in terms of Thornthwaite Memorial model.And changes of FPCP and its responses to different scenarios of climate change were also evaluated.The results showed that（1） annual mean temperature in desert steppe increased significantly since 1961.The temperature increased much more in north-eastern and western parts than that in other areas of the study region.Meanwhile,precipitation fluctuated annually without remarkable trends of increase of decrease during past five decades in general.From the spatial point of view,however,precipitation in north-eastern region was decreased strongly.（2） FPCP increased linearly but not significantly in the whole area.The middle part of desert steppe showed great increase of FPCP.（3） Both warm-humid and cold-humid scenarios of climate change are likely to enhance the FPCP.But warm-dry climate will reduce the FPCP.（4） Annual precipitation was highly related to FPCP,indicating that precipitation is the key factor affecting FPCP of desert steppe in Inner Mongolia.
出处
《中国草地学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期57-65,共9页
Chinese Journal of Grassland
基金
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(中国农业科学院草原研究所)(2008-J-1)
现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金
国家自然科学基金(30760158)
内蒙古自然科学基金(2009ms0603)
内蒙古气象局科技创新项目(nmqxkjcx200706)资助
关键词
气候变化
荒漠草原
气候生产力
时空格局
Climate change
Desert steppe
Climatic productivity
Spatial-temporal pattern
