摘要
随着人口的增加和经济的发展,西北干旱地区水资源承载能力和区域的社会需求之间的矛盾越来越突出,缺水、水污染以及生态环境破坏已成为制约当地水资源可持续利用和经济可持续发展的主要限制因素。本文应用多目标决策分析方法研究了新疆焉耆盆地的水资源承载能力问题,通过对系统内在作用机制的分析,综合考虑水资源与社会经济发展、生态环境以及其它资源之间的关系,确定出系统的目标、主要决策变量及它们之间的函数关系,建立了区域水资源承载力多目标决策模型并对其进行了求解,预测了研究区未来规划水平年水资源承载力的各项指标,为合理分配该区域的农业用水、工业用水、生活用水以及生态用水量提供参考;为实现该区域生态环境保护和水资源可持续利用提供科学依据。
Along with population growth and socio-economic development,the contradiction between the regional water resource carrying capacity and social demand has become more and more prominent in China,which is particularly serious in arid areas of northwest China.Water shortage,water pollution and ecological damage have become the major limiting factors of the sustainable use of water resources and sustainable economic development.In this paper,water resource carrying capacity in Yanqi Basin was discussed by using the multi-objective decision-making model.With considering relationships between water resources and socio-economic development and ecological environment and other resources,the system＇s goals,main decision variables and their functional relationship were determined through analysis of the mechanism within the system.And the multi-objective decision model about regional water resources carrying capacity was established and solved,which can be used to forecast varied indicators about water resource carrying capacity in the future.Study results show,it is feasible to analyze water resource carrying capacity in arid areas by using multi-objective decision-making model.The results can offer a useful reference for the rational allocation of the region＇s agricultural water,industrial water,domestic water and ecological water.In addition,it can also offer the scientific basis for ecological protection and sustainable development of water resource.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第11期60-65,共6页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(编号:2010CB951001)
新疆气象局气象科技研究课题(编号:200808)
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40801019)联合资助
关键词
多目标决策分析
水资源承载力
优化模型
焉耆盆地
multi-objective analysis
water resource carrying capacity
optimization model
Yanqi basin
