摘要
本文以负债率、债务率、利息支出率、担保债务比重四个指标为中国债务风险衡量的主要指标,结合指标测算和债务情况及收入水平进行考察,结果显示中国地方政府整体债务风险可控,在近几年间政府有能力偿还债务利息。但中国债务风险区域分布不均衡,防控重点是经济发展处于全国中等水平的省市,这些省市亟须举债而在风险控制上相对较弱,经济发展较弱的省份需要中央政府的担保举债,经济较为发达的省份基本可以负担本地融资。本文认为,保持宏观经济政策一致性,在债务清理、融资平台公司的处理上应分区域、公司区别对待,这样有利于降低地方政府债务风险。
Based on the four ratios, ratio of debt to GDP, ratio of debt to fiscal revenue, ratio of interest expense to fiscal revenue and ratio of secured debt outstanding to fiscal revenue, as the indicators to measure the risks of Chinese local governments＇debts, and combined with the estimates of the indicators, the levels of the debt and revenue, this paper inspects the risks of Chinese local governments＇ debts. The results show that the risks of Chinese local governments＇ debts are controllable and in the few years, the governments are capable of paying the interest on the debts, but the distribution of the risks is not balanced. The key regions of the prevention and control of the risks are the provinces that their economic development is at the medium level in the country. These provinces need borrowing money, but their abilities to control risks are relatively weak. The economically less developed provinces need central government＇s guarantees to borrow money and the economically more developed provinces can afford the local financing on the whole. This paper argues that it will help reduce the risks of local government debts that macroeconomic policies are consistent, clearing debt and processing financing platform companies are treated differently according to different regions and different companies.
出处
《金融论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第1期14-24,共11页
Finance Forum
关键词
地方政府融资平台
政府债务
债务风险
local government＇s financing platform
government debt
debt risk
