摘要
近年来高速公路建设日新月异,而高速公路的养护管理和养护工作却相对滞后不能适应高速公路的飞速发展的需要。以1995年至2009年间的天津市高速公路数据为样本,使用现代时间序列分析的ARMA模型对养管资金的需求做了预测,与先验预期的观点不同,研究的结果表明高速公路养管资金的需求在相对较长的一个时期内将保持稳定地增长状态而非由于使用年限的增加导致单位养护成本越来越高;研究认为高速公路筑路技术的提高使得我国高速公路的有效使用年数在增长。
Recently China is experiencing an era of rapid expressway construction,while the expressway maintenance and management can barely meet the needs of expressway system development.Based on the expressway data collected between 1995 and 2009 in Tianjin,a time series model of autoregressive moving average（ARMA） is applied to predict the capital needs of expressway maintenance and management.Contrary to the expected results,the empirical study shows that the increase of the expressway maintenance and management capital will remain stable in a long period of time and the unit cost of expressway maintenance and management does not grow higher with the increase of the number of years after the expressway opens to the traffic.The study shows that the number of years of effective usage of the expressway system is increased due to the improvement of the expressway construction technology.
出处
《科学技术与工程》
2011年第7期1636-1639,1648,共5页
Science Technology and Engineering
关键词
高速公路
ARMA模型
养护和管理
expressway autoregressive moving average maintenance and management
