摘要
针对洪水变化过程难以预料、洪水水位与其影响因子之间复杂的非线性关系及其危害范围广等特点,提出将集对分析检验与互相关系数统计假设检验相结合,识别影响最高洪水水位变化的主要预测因子,进而建立了基于集对分析的最高洪水水位相似预测模型(SPA-SF)。计算结果表明:采用SPA-SF预测最高洪水水位,预测概念清晰,计算直观,结构清晰且预测精度较高,为准确预测最高洪水水位提供一种新的理论依据。
According to the unexpected flood variation process,complex nonlinear relation between highest flood level and its influencing factors and extensive hazard scope,combined set pair analysis test and correlation coefficients statistic test were used to determine the main physics vectors that influence the highest flood level in this paper,then the set pair analysis based on similarity forecast model of highest flood level change,named SPA-SF,is established.The prediction result of SPA-SF showed that the statistic and physical concepts of SPA-SF are distinct,its computation method is visual,its precision is high.It provided a new theory for predicting highest flood level.
出处
《黑龙江大学工程学报》
2010年第3期30-32,共3页
Journal of Engineering of Heilongjiang University
关键词
洪水水位
集对分析
相似预测
flood level
set pair analysis
similarity forecast
