摘要
经济增长与能源碳排放之间的关系一直是学术界关注的焦点。文章通过构建经济与能源碳排放脱钩分析模型,探讨我国经济增长与能源碳排放的脱钩关系及程度,分析二者脱钩发展的时间和空间演变趋势。分析表明:①全国层面上,1980年-2008年期间除2000年-2005年为扩张性负脱钩外,其余时期经济与能源碳排放均呈现弱脱钩状态,脱钩程度随宏观经济形势和政策调控变化波动较大,与实现强脱钩还有一定差距,未来一定时期内弱脱钩发展趋势仍将持续;②地区层面上,2000年-2008年期间各省域主要表现为弱脱钩和扩张性负脱钩两种状态,其中2000年-2005年全国有13个省份落在弱脱钩区域,2005年-2008年除青海省外的29个省份均落在弱脱钩区域;大部分地区后期较前期脱钩更为显著,并呈现出地区脱钩程度差距逐渐缩小的趋势;③2000年-2005年经济与碳排放脱钩空间格局较为分散,脱钩显著区域大致分布在东部地区,脱钩程度区域差异较大;2005年-2008年脱钩显著区域呈现空间集聚态势,主要集中在华北、华东和华中地区,区域差异明显缩小;④中间变量分析表明无论是全国层面还是地区层面上,经济增长与能源碳排放脱钩主要由经济与能源消费脱钩造成;我国总体碳减排技术水平较低,区域差异不明显,技术发展相对滞后,对经济与碳排放脱钩贡献有限。据此,未来脱钩发展措施重点方向为在进一步推广节能技术、推动产业升级的基础上,着力加强发展碳减排技术,同时逐步改善能源结构。
The relationship between economic growth and energy carbon emissions has been paid much attention. By constructing a decoupling analysis model, we discussed the decoupling relationship between economic growth and energy carbon emissions in China, and analyzed temporal and spatial variation trends in decoupling development by evaluating the decoupling degree. Results show that 1） China pertains to weak decoupling at a national level during the period 1980-2008, except for the period 2000-2005, in which China fell into expansive negative decoupling. The decoupling degree fluctuated with changes in macro-economic situations and policy regulation. There is room for achieving stronger decoupling, and the development trend of weak decoupling will continue for some time in the future. 2） At a provincial level, the provincial regions belonged to either weak decoupling or expansive negative decoupling from 2000 to 2008. During the period 2000-2005, 13 provincial regions belonged to weak decoupling; during the period 2005-2008, 29 provincial regions belonged to weak decoupling except for Qinghai Province, with most of regions achieving more significant decoupling in the later period, and the regional gap of decoupling degree was narrowing. 3） During the period 2000-2005, the decoupling spatial pattern of economy from carbon emissions exhibited a state of dispersion. The significant decoupling regions were generally distributed in eastern China, showing large regional differences in the decoupling degree. During the period 2005-2008, the significant decoupling regions showed a trend in spatial agglomeration, mainly concentrating in northern China, eastern China, and central China, with regional differences being significantly reduced. 4） Intermediate variable analysis indicates that on both the national and provincial levels, decoupling of economic growth from energy carbon emissions is mainly caused by the decoupling of economy from energy consumption. In general, China’s technology about carbon emissions reduction remains relatively low, which has limited its contribution to decoupling economy from carbon emissions, with no significant regional differences and the lag behind in technological advancement. Therefore, future measures for decoupling development are promoting energy-saving technologies and industrial upgrading, strengthening the development of technologies on carbon emissions reduction, and gradually improving the energy structure.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期626-633,共8页
Resources Science
基金
国土资源部公益性行业科研专项经费项目:"土地利用规划的碳排放效应与调控研究"(编号:200811033)
关键词
经济增长
能源碳排放
脱钩分析
中国
Economic growth
Energy carbon emission
Decoupling analysis
China
